Let's Bet! (for Oscar, that is) -- Part 1

This is my entry that loudly speaks: You ask for it!

And no matter how hard I have persuaded printed media to release my Oscar predictions (i love you, guys! hahaha!), they lean more towards what news agencies provide. Let's see if my predictions match:

Nominees for BEST PICTURE are:

- Babel
- The Departed
- Letters from Iwo Jima
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Queen

Earlier this week, I discussed with my colleague, who traveled regularly to film festivals in the world, over why it is so hard for Indonesia and many other countries to score a nomination, at least for Best Foreign Language film. His answer is simple: "Most of AMPAS members who vote for this event reside in the US, so, it's easier for them to vote for films they are familiar with. By familiar, it can be by getting a release in LA/NY, or media coverage, or any medium of promotions. Like everything else, it's all about connection."

Add that with "getting close to them, the voters".

Four of five Best Picture winners in this century are films with stories originally concepted in America, set in the USA and directed by American directors (the exception being "The Return of the King" by New Zealander Peter Jackson). From "A Beautiful Mind" to "Crash", they all have the Star Spangled Banner notes embedded within.

So, what does this tell us? Easy. The only very American film is Little Miss Sunshine.

If one would like to push The Departed, it is quick to note that the film is an adaptation of much superior "Infernal Affairs" from Hong Kong. The Queen and Letters from Iwo Jima are out of question, and Babel does babble in multiple languages in several continents.

The fact that Little comes with a dose of good-hearted humor is a bonus, and in a time of disheartening events around the world, I guess most of right-wing, liberal voters would like to light up the world with one thing they know best: entertaining.


Will win: Little Miss Sunshine
Should win: Letters from Iwo Jima (hasn't it been some time that we see a war film winning Best Picture? The last time a war drama won Best Picture was, believe it or not, "Platoon" in 1986!)